ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE FORECASTS TO CALIFORNIA ENERGY PRODUCTION MANAGEMENT
Link to NOAA Strategic Plan: NOAA’s Mission Goal 3: Serve Society’s Needs for Weather and Water Information
RESEARCH OBJECTIVES AND SPECIFIC PLANS TO ACHIEVE THEM
This project evaluates the potential for using climate forecasts to help manage the joint water and energy resources of the western U.S. Regional hydrologic forecast models are used in management of hydroelectric power resources in California and the Columbia River basin of the Pacific Northwest (PNW); however, these rarely incorporate climate predictions. Instead they use midwinter snow pack measurements, and so have no skill beyond climatology prior to midwinter. Furthermore, these methods have generally been applied at local rather than regional scales. Rudimentary models are used to predict effects of weather on the energy industry, but these existing methods use climate forecasts in only a very crude way or not at all. Furthermore, little or no effort has been made to jointly predict both water and energy variations across the West on seasonal time scales; addressing both in an integrated way is a unique feature of this project. Joint prediction of water and power generation potential is critical, given the large role hydroelectric power plays in the economy of the western states. Consideration of both California and the Pacific Northwest is also critical because these regions exchange power; for instance, a winter drought in Washington can affect the subsequent summer exports of hydroelectric power to California for air conditioning. In summary, this project will take an integrated look at climate, water, and energy throughout the western U.S. to evaluate the usefulness of seasonal climate prediction in operational management of western water and energy resources.
This project as proposed enumerated four objectives defined as follows:
Task 1: Document how variations in climate affect energy supply and demand in the U.S. west
Task 2: Create and evaluate the skill of climate forecasts predicting those aspects of climate variability found in Task 1 to most affect energy supply and demand
Task 3: Analyze the effect that the predictable part of the climate variability has on the western U.S. energy system
Task 4: Work with energy utility and public sector decision makers to see how climate forecasts could be used to optimize operations
RESEARCH ACCOMPLISHMENTS
We have completed Task 1 via construction of temperature vs. energy demand curves for different regions of the west. The WECC electrical system model has been modified, resulting in an hourly model of coincident electrical supply and demand. Demand is modeled as a function of maximum temperature. Computations with the WECC electrical system model were undertaken to estimate the value of ‘Perfect Predictions’ to the energy industry. Computation of additional scenarios using the WECC model are underway to test the effects of changes in hydropower availability. The analysis in Tasks 2 and 3 have been largely completed. Task 4 is underway in the form of a collaboration with DWR led by Anne Steinemann at UW. Manuscripts (Hamlet, Westerling) are in preparation.
Fig. 1
In this example we use the modified WECC model to estimate surplus generation by service area (represented by the bubbles) for (left) all four western regions’ TMAX at the 90th percentile versus all four regions’ TMAX at the 100th percentile. Increased temperature increases demand everywhere, but especially in California and the Southwest. As demand increases, exports of power from the Northwest and Southwest to northern and southern CA increase. The price per kW/hour for peak power increases as well.
Fig. 2
Despite a lack of clear trends in cool season precipitation volume over time, cool season precipitation variability in the West has changed markedly since the mid 1970s. The coefficients of variation, autocorrelation, and regional synchronicity have all increased markedly since about 1975. Annual hydropower production has followed suit. These results suggest reduced opportunity for conjunctive management of the West’s hydropower resources in recent decades.
